The debate on the forthcoming EU Referendum has been driven as much by ideology as economic reality.
Voters should reflect not only on personal ‘comfort zone’ preferences but also on future opportunities for our children and grandchildren.
Much has been made by the ‘Remain’ side of the nearly £400 million annual EU funding which supports our agri-food sector, infrastructure, training programmes, research and development , student exchange, tourism, environment protection and community development. Conversely the ‘Leave’ campaign has argued that the £8.5 billion net annual UK contribution to the EU could be diverted to various causes, including some in Northern Ireland, in the event of UK withdrawal.
Many voters find the competing claims of both campaigns confusing. It is however difficult to imagine any UK government providing the same level of subsidies and commitment to the agri-food industry that the EU has shown over decades. Britain has consistently opposed the Common Agricultural Policy funding levels. Equally it is worth pointing out that the UK net contribution to the EU is less than 0.5% of UK GDP, less than the UK overseas aid budget and also less than the annual UK subvention to Northern Ireland. Our population is approximately 1/40th that of the UK. Does anyone believe that saving this sum would have more than a minimal impact on overall UK public services or business support?
The real economic benefit in being part of the EU is free access to the largest trading block in the world, the EU ‘single market’ of 500 million people. Its development was championed by the UK and supported by the Irish government. The CBI and others estimate that this has a net worth of 4-5% GDP, or £60-80 billion annually, to the UK economy. Around 44% of UK exports (and over 60% of NI exports) are to EU countries. Only 8% of total EU exports go to the UK. Trade deals take years to negotiate - it is difficult to imagine that the EU could or would streamline a trade deal with the UK. Unfettered access for the UK to the single market would be dependent upon free movement of EU citizens – a condition which would defeat one of the central purposes of the Leave campaign. Even a minor diminution in trade with the EU would have huge negative consequences for the UK economy including job losses and business failures, with Northern Ireland being the region most severely affected.
Most polls show that the most enthusiastic Remain supporters are younger voters particularly graduates and students in further and higher education. This is unsurprising as interaction with their EU counterparts has fostered an international outward looking culture on college campuses and helped prepare them for an ever more globalised world. Northern Ireland has received more than double the overall funding per capita under the Erasmus exchange programme than the UK as a whole. Students who did an Erasmus placement have been shown to be 50% less likely to experience longterm unemployment.
Equally over 90% of UK academics support Remain. R&D is crucial to Northern Ireland’s future. Most of today’s major research challenges are global and not solely national. Research involving international collaborators has been shown to have nearly 50% more measurable impact than research done at a national level. Northern Ireland has played a full part in leading and participating in EU research programmes. The EU produces over a third of the world’s scientific output - 34% more than the US and that gap has grown by 4% over the last 6 years according to the latest UNESCO data.
NI is the only UK region that would have a land border with the EU post-Brexit. The Leave camp has argued that the UK should leave the single market but that somehow the current ‘invisible’ North-South border with free movement of people and goods would continue. The reality is that it would be necessary to restore border checks and certification to prevent non-EU goods freely entering the Irish Republic and EU migrants entering the UK. Those who remember the queues of goods vehicles at the border prior to the creation of the single market hardly wish to return to such a costly and wasteful activity. It is also likely that increased security would be imposed at Northern Ireland ports and airports to prevent migrants using the Irish Republic as a ‘back door’ entry route into Great Britain, thus making travel within the UK more difficult. Does the Leave campaign really wish to isolate Northern Ireland both within the UK and on the island of Ireland? There is much at stake in this referendum. However beyond stating that they wish to have no future EU interference in British laws, it has been difficult for the Leave camp to come up with firm examples of EU legal impositions that have been to the detriment of UK citizens. Many changes initiated and promoted by the EU including those related to working conditions, women’s rights, health and safety, and our environment have had major positive consequences for all. EU migrants have contributed greatly to our economy including our health service. The major issue is whether we wish to continue to help shape the future economic, social and political future of the European continent and remain major players in an increasingly interconnected world, or withdraw into a more inward-looking region with ever decreasing influence on the world stage? Whatever our personal preferences this latter choice would not represent an ambitious pathway of opportunity for current and future generations.